Trump

So - Trump came, Trump saw, and Trump.... left.

Are there any really useful lessons to draw from the Trump experience ?

I don't believe there are any lessons to draw regarding Trump himself. Trump is an object lesson in self preservation uber alles, and I think that at the very end he understood that self preservation, rather than any higher principle, required him to go rather than stay. He could have instigated even greater violence had he so desired, but he understood that the writing was, finally, on the proverbial wall, and he should live to fight another day.

The lesson is really very much more about America than it is about Trump. The most terrifying aspect of the Trump years from the point of view of Europeans, is really that after four years of lying, misogynistic, narcissistic, bombastic incompetence, including the closest thing to a violent overthrow of the US state since the Civil War, he could still have the apparent support of nearly 50% of Americans. Of course, Europe has its own right wing quasi-fascist asshats like Viktor Orbán, but they are in a minority. And of course, Britain itself was once highly supportive of Boris Johnson.

And yet, this is the characteristic of the Trump years that really nails the very nature of American politics. One can be right wing and conservative, even by American standards, without being or supporting any of the things Trump was. So why did people support him ?

Well of course, when he was first elected there's the argument that they had no alternative. They were not blessed with a surfeit of strong articulate candidates, Hilary Clinton was not an attractive proposition even for Democrats, and Trump was a past master of self publicity. There was a feeling that the existing system was broken and would benefit from being shaken up. Enough people were willing to give the new guy a chance, and the Republican establishment saw no political benefit from distancing itself from a populist. If he was indeed capable of shaking things up, they would rather be with him than against him.

It's clear that his very real loss second time round was due to the fact that he managed to seriously piss off more people than he persuaded, a fact that surprises absolutely no one outside of America. Instead of draining the swamp, he became ( with some help ) it's chief alligator. But still, he carried a great number. Why ?

We are now into the territory of demagogues, and the techniques of demagoguery. Or, perhaps, religion.

By 'religion', I don't mean some particular creed or church. I mean a pattern of thinking in which belief has primacy over rationale. Analytic thinkers, such as political journalists and commentators, tend to assume that voters are rational actors.

This may once have been the case. There is the 'It's the economy, stupid' meme from the days of Bush Snr - i.e. that voters are not fundamentally ideological, they are driven by the very direct influence of economic factors on their daily lives. Thatcher made essentially the same observation - when she infamously said 'there is no such thing as society', it was actually an answer to a question about how she crafted policies which appealed to voters, and she was observing that voters did not vote for a policy on the basis of its impact on society, but the impact on them personally.

But what if a substantial subset of voters simply ceases to be rational ? What if, instead, they are persuaded to approach politics with the same belief based thought patterns that underlie religions ? This is the trick, the mental slight of hand, that demagogues exploit - they turn what might be politics, and therefore a matter of weighing up arguments more or less rationally, into religion, where there is no weighing up of arguments, there is simply The Word.

America, despite the fact that the founders ( the writers of the Constitution ) were by no means religious zealots, and saw the risks of mixing government and religion with rare clarity, is a very religious place. The primacy of belief, as opposed to reason, as the basis for action is deeply embedded in every aspect of American culture, in a way which Europeans do not automatically understand. It affects everything from the principles and practices of American business, to the politicisation of the education system, to the propagation of conspiracy theories, and of course to political affiliation.

Therefore there is a sense in which America was uniquely vulnerable to Trump. And indeed, still is.

UP | NEXT | HOME